Lessons must be re-learned
In 1988-89, the Soviet Union collapsed. Its constituent Republics became independent, sovereign countries. Russia’s new leader, Boris Yeltsin, seemed like a good guy. Russia tried to make the transition to an open-market, democratic country. Scholars wrote silly things about “the end of history.” The good guys won, it’s all over, we won’t have to worry with any of this again. And in 1992, we turned George H.W. Bush out of the White House in favor of Bill Clinton.
I have thought for years that we elected Clinton because we were smug and thought we were owed a party after our long vigil against tyranny. Hitherto, we tended to vote for presidents who we thought were better than we were (sometimes, this was an exercise in the suspension of disbelief, but whatever). In electing Clinton, we deliberately elected a leader whose character we knew was less than our own. This gave us permission to not care about a whole lot of things, and we enjoyed the party. We blithely ignored all the scandals for eight years; after all, we were top dogs and it didn’t matter whether we were virtuous or not.
George W. Bush tried to get us to concentrate on better things. And then we were attacked on 9/11/2001. Brushing aside all the revisionist history that has been peddled since then, I think it was entirely reasonable that we should have set out to defeat al-Qaeda, neutralize Saddam, evict the Taliban, etc. The primary mistake of the Bush administration was to assume that everybody wants what we want – and to attempt to guide the nations we had occupied in our own defense into fully functioning liberal democracies with Western values. This mired us in places like Afghanistan and we grew tired. After twenty years, we wanted to declare victory and go home.
At the same time, we blithely thought that economic investment in China would lead to the opening up of that country. Economic reforms inevitably lead to political reforms, we said. In the meantime, we loved the fact that we could get all kinds of goods cheap from China while the government of China bought up our debt in huge tranches. We owe so much to the Chinese that if they invade Taiwan, we will be paying for both sides’ weapons.
Bush was succeeded by Obama. Scandals and lawlessness returned with a vengeance, but nobody much cared. The wider world was off our radar and we were having too much fun. Obama thought he could buy off Iran, which was terribly foolish. Meanwhile, North Korea looked like the most dangerous challenge out there. Trump – to everyone’s surprise – seemed to neutralize the threat from North Korea. And he responded strongly to Iran and to ISIS. So he had some successes, but meanwhile we were piling up debt, starting stupid trade wars, and not refurbishing our military. Then covid-19 hit, and we started throwing money away at an alarming rate.
Joe Biden, a blowhard and public fool for fifty years, surprised everyone but himself by being elected President. And instead of trying to right the ship and patch the leaks, he immediately started out trying to do crazy and destructive things, all the while assuming that the rest of the world would always acknowledge us as top dogs. But Russia under Putin has been building itself up to challenge the West for some time. And China under Xi is waiting to pluck global hegemony as soon as the fruit is ripe. And Iran, et al, are just as crazy and nearer to nuclear capability than ever. And here we are.
If we don’t want Russia to destabilize Europe (and maybe conquer some of our NATO allies while we watch helplessly), if we don’t want China to run the world, if we don’t want the mullahs to have nukes, we are going to have to realize that the party is over, history has resumed, and it’s time to get back to work. This means we will have to do several things:
I have thought for years that we elected Clinton because we were smug and thought we were owed a party after our long vigil against tyranny. Hitherto, we tended to vote for presidents who we thought were better than we were (sometimes, this was an exercise in the suspension of disbelief, but whatever). In electing Clinton, we deliberately elected a leader whose character we knew was less than our own. This gave us permission to not care about a whole lot of things, and we enjoyed the party. We blithely ignored all the scandals for eight years; after all, we were top dogs and it didn’t matter whether we were virtuous or not.
George W. Bush tried to get us to concentrate on better things. And then we were attacked on 9/11/2001. Brushing aside all the revisionist history that has been peddled since then, I think it was entirely reasonable that we should have set out to defeat al-Qaeda, neutralize Saddam, evict the Taliban, etc. The primary mistake of the Bush administration was to assume that everybody wants what we want – and to attempt to guide the nations we had occupied in our own defense into fully functioning liberal democracies with Western values. This mired us in places like Afghanistan and we grew tired. After twenty years, we wanted to declare victory and go home.
At the same time, we blithely thought that economic investment in China would lead to the opening up of that country. Economic reforms inevitably lead to political reforms, we said. In the meantime, we loved the fact that we could get all kinds of goods cheap from China while the government of China bought up our debt in huge tranches. We owe so much to the Chinese that if they invade Taiwan, we will be paying for both sides’ weapons.
Bush was succeeded by Obama. Scandals and lawlessness returned with a vengeance, but nobody much cared. The wider world was off our radar and we were having too much fun. Obama thought he could buy off Iran, which was terribly foolish. Meanwhile, North Korea looked like the most dangerous challenge out there. Trump – to everyone’s surprise – seemed to neutralize the threat from North Korea. And he responded strongly to Iran and to ISIS. So he had some successes, but meanwhile we were piling up debt, starting stupid trade wars, and not refurbishing our military. Then covid-19 hit, and we started throwing money away at an alarming rate.
Joe Biden, a blowhard and public fool for fifty years, surprised everyone but himself by being elected President. And instead of trying to right the ship and patch the leaks, he immediately started out trying to do crazy and destructive things, all the while assuming that the rest of the world would always acknowledge us as top dogs. But Russia under Putin has been building itself up to challenge the West for some time. And China under Xi is waiting to pluck global hegemony as soon as the fruit is ripe. And Iran, et al, are just as crazy and nearer to nuclear capability than ever. And here we are.
If we don’t want Russia to destabilize Europe (and maybe conquer some of our NATO allies while we watch helplessly), if we don’t want China to run the world, if we don’t want the mullahs to have nukes, we are going to have to realize that the party is over, history has resumed, and it’s time to get back to work. This means we will have to do several things:
First, we are going to have to re-invest in our military. We have used up a lot of materiel and not replaced it (ships, especially). We have demobilized a lot of troops and moved them out of central Europe (where they were expensive to keep). We have closed a lot of bases. We have abandoned facilities, materiel, and (most importantly) relationships in Afghanistan. Rebuilding all that is going to cost an enormous amount of money over many, many years.Meanwhile, we are stuck with Joe Biden for three more years. The Republicans may re-take Congress at the mid-terms, but the handling of affairs is out of their reach until 2025. And the GOP has problems, too. New leaders need to emerge who are focused on present challenges, not settling old scores, whether within the party or with the Democrats. But the fundamental problem is not with our leaders, but with us. Democracy means we get the government we deserve. Voting for people you know are scoundrels and dingbats because they speak for your tribe is simply admitting that your tribe has no higher aspirations than a society of scoundrels and dingbats – and we will be easy meat for the likes of Putin, Xi, and the mullahs.
Second, we are going to have to get our fiscal house in order. Debt is a national security issue. We cannot do what we need to do on deficit financing. But controlling government expenditure – let alone redirecting it toward more important purposes – cannot be done while we piss money away on giveaway programs like covid relief. It also requires us to confront the biggest elephant in the room: entitlements. Even if you could get Congress to spend less than it takes in, discretionary spending is miniscule compared to mandated spending on Social Security and Medicare, which are NOT “paid for” by our payroll taxes. Not only that, but government transfers, one way or another, now go to fully half of all Americans. That’s a lot of bones to take away from a lot of dogs (John Jay Chapman’s definition of “reform” is taking away a bone from a dog).
Third, we cannot afford to indulge ourselves in squalid ideologies like CRT, wokeness, and so on. These would be unjust and offensive even if we were left to ourselves to organize our society however we desired. But they are a massive distraction from the threats posed by real life: Russia; China; Iran. The more we have to fight off those who would pillage our society from within for their own advancement, the less we can concentrate on fighting off those who threaten us from without. If you think America is a flawed country now, wait until it’s being dictated to by the likes of our rivals.